America was elevated into the forefront in the fight against terrorists after 9/11. We have been fighting the war against terrorism for over ten years and we are still going strong. There have been a few minor terrorist incidents within the United States since 9/11, but large scale incidents have not happened. There are many questions that linger because of this lack of terrorist activity. For example, why have there been minimal terrorist attacks in the United States since 9/11, and will the terrorists attack in the future? These two questions I will attempt to answer in this blog.
If a terrorist organization wants to attack the United States from a base in the Middle East or Africa, they will have a difficult task ahead of them. America has a natural defense to terrorists on other continents: oceans. On either side of the United States you have oceans that form a large barrier/buffer zone between us many other nations. This barrier helps us defend against many of the international terrorist attacks. Distance makes the logistical part for international terrorists that want to conduct a terrorist attack harder.
In order to conduct a large scale terrorist attack within the United States the terrorist organizations must have a large funding system. This was the case with 9/11 and Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda had a large bank account and was able to fund the terrorists in the United States all the way from Afghanistan. According to the 9/11 commission, to plan and conduct their attack the 9/11 plotters spent between $400,000 and $500,000. To plan and conduct an operation like 9/11 you need to have an organization like Al Qaeda funding your bank account. There are only a few independent terrorist organizations that are capable of doing this; the U.S. counter terrorist groups have them under close surveillance.
9/11 opened Pandora’s Box in the fight against terrorism. Now there is a greater consequence to having a large enough bank account and being a terrorist organization: you attract a lot of attention. The CIA and FBI will likely be monitoring an organization of this size. The FBI and CIA will monitor their communication networks and follow-up on credible threats a lot better than before 9/11. Therefore, I think we are more capable of stopping a plot of large magnitude than before 9/11.
It is a difficult task for international terrorists to come into the United States from another country and conduct a major attack on us. However, I think terrorists will eventually try and conduct a Mumbai style attack on U.S. soil. The Mumbai terrorist attack according to the New York Times was a “machine-gun and grenade assault on at least two five-star hotels, the city’s largest train station, a Jewish center, a movie theater and a hospital.” It was conducted by 10 Islamic fundamentalists from Pakistan and they killed over 300 people. There are many factors that let the terrorists in Mumbai to carry out such a horrific attack, like their police force was under-trained and under-equipped, but I think their surprise attack could be copied in the U.S. This operation was very small in scale in relation to 9/11, but was very effective.
If terrorists want to attack the United States, small scale attacks will be the best way that they can do it. This will be the best way they could fly under the radar. There was one such small scale attack on U.S. soil by a solitary terrorist: Maj. Hasan and Ft. Hood. Hasan was influenced by a radical Islamic cleric in Yemen named Anwar al-Awlaki. He sought to become a martyr and conduct a suicide mission. Hasan went onto Ft. Hood and killed 13 people with a semi-automatic pistol. He was able to avoid detection by keeping his operation small in numbers.
All this being said I think it would be easier for a home grown terrorist (individual or small group) to conduct small scale attacks on multiple targets. Although small terrorist attacks are really hard for law enforcement to track and stop, post-9/11 we do have better tools that allow law enforcement more authority. Domestic changes in U.S. search and seizure policy has made being a terrorist a harder accomplishment.
Improvements such as the Patriot Act have allowed the U.S. law enforcement to closely monitor suspected terrorists. The Patriot Act restricts American citizen’s civil liberties, but it also protects us from terrorist operations. There have also been vast improvements in TSA regulations and screening has made airlines safer. All of these changes were made in response to 9/11 and I believe if it were not for these changes America would be vulnerable to another large scale attack.
During the next few decades this cat and mouse game will be the status quo of terrorism. America has had the advantage in the decade after 9/11 because we were vigilant, but I think that if we get complacent there will be new attacks. We need to continue to be on our toes and allow law enforcement more tools to monitor terrorists. There needs to be understanding that the pendulum has swung towards public safety over civil liberties because of the risk of terrorism. It will eventually swing the other way, but for now I will sacrifice some of my liberties for safety.
References
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/27/world/asia/27mumbai.html?pagewanted=all
www.9-11commission.gov/staff_statements/911_TerrFin_App.pdf
